If you have been a reader of this blog for the past few months then you know I have done a number of posts on senior statistics loss. I started doing this a number of years back just for my own edification but I stole the original idea from Rich Kern. At the time, I thought he was only doing it for DI but it appears he also has a chart on his site that covers all of DIII. Very cool! You can find a link to the DI, DII and DIII charts, here.
Just to rehash what this all means, this is simply a chart that shows the loss of statistics to senior graduation. The intent is that it gives the reader an idea of how much a particular school needs to replace. As I’ve said in my posts in the past, the quality of a school in 2018 will be less about what they lost to senior graduation and more about what they gain. The charts don’t factor in incoming transfers or freshman or outgoing players that aren’t seniors. So, although the statistics aren’t perfect, I do believe they have a lot of value if used correctly.
Since we have this wonderful chart, I thought it might be interesting to look at some story lines for 2018.
- Top 100 teams (Pablo Rankings) with no graduation loss are – Aurora, Muhlenberg and Babson. Both Aurora and Babson made the NCAA tournament and Muhlenberg was a bubble team.
- Top 50 teams with less that 10% loss of Points are – Washington-St. Louis (0.09%), Emory (0.74), JWU (0.78), Chicago (1.2), Muskingum (2.6), Tufts (4.42), Wesleyan (4.52), UMHB (7.23), Berry (9.05) and Thomas More (9.92).
- Brevard losses the most total points with 91.86% graduating!
- Top 50 teams with 50% or higher Points loss are – Millikin (61.54%), CMS (54.21) and Swarthmore (51.66).
And just for grins, here are the teams that should probably make a pre-season Top 25 list for any coaches that want to look cool (alphabetical order…I mean do some of your own work for crying out loud):
- Christopher Newport
- Colorado College
- Gustavus Adolphus
- Johnson & Wales (RI)
- Mary Hardin-Baylor (UMHB)
- Mary Washington
- Ohio Northern
- Pacific Lutheran
- Thomas More
- UT Dallas
- Washington-St. Louis
- Wesleyan (CT)
- Wis-Eau Claire
- Wis- Oshkosh
Other good choices: De Pauw, Wittenberg, Ithaca, Calvin and Illinois Wesleyan.
(I mean, since we know the NCAA no longer likes to give tournament bids to the WIAC, we can probably just eliminate Eau Claire and Oshkosh and replace them with De Pauw and Wittenberg. Cuts out the middle man.)
End of the year AVCA Top 25 teams not mentioned: CMS, Southwestern (Wait, what?), Northwestern, Trinity, Millikin, Carthage, Carnegie-Mellon, Johns Hopkins, Swarthmore, MIT, Stevenson and St. Thomas.
Honestly, not a bad list of schools for a pre-season Top 25. I hope at least one coach does me proud and votes from those teams. Now in real life, we know that some of the perennial Top 25 teams will just reload from their graduation losses and just keep on rolling but until we see the incoming freshman/transfers, this is the best we’ve got.