Projected NCAA Field of 64

Like last year, I will follow in my leader’s footsteps and attempt to predict the NCAA Tournament field. You should also check out Ricky Nelson’s site as he’ll be doing the same exercise independently of me.

Once again, I went through the selection process and you can see my thoughts as it was done by clicking here. There are points where it gets ugly.

The online selection show will be tomorrow (Monday) at 11:30 a.m. Central. Hopefully this link will work – NCAA Selection Show. Failing that, here is the DIII Volleyball Home Page.

My yearly at-large matches with the national selection committee:
2017: 17 of 21

Pool A (43)

Allegheny Mountain Collegiate Conference: Pittsburgh – Bradford
American Rivers Conference: Dubuque
American Southwest Conference: Mary Hardin-Baylor
Capital Athletic Conference: Christopher Newport
Centennial Conference: Johns Hopkins
City University of New York Athletic Conference: Hunter
College Conference of Illinois & Wisconsin: Illinois Wesleyan
Colonial States Athletic Conference: Notre Dame
Commonwealth Coast Conference: Wentworth
Commonwealth Conference: Stevenson
Empire 8 Athletic Conference: Nazareth
Freedom Conference: Eastern
Great Northeast Athletic Conference: Johnson & Wales (R.I.)
Heartland Collegiate Athletic Conference: Rose-Hulman
Landmark Conference: Juniata
Liberty League: RIT
Little East Conference: Eastern Connecticut State
Massachusetts State College Athletic Conference: Worcester State
Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association: Calvin
Midwest Conference: Cornell
Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference: Gustavus Adolphus
New England Collegiate Conference: Southern Vermont
New England Small College Athletic Conference: Bowdoin
New England Women’s and Men’s Athletics Conference: Babson
New Jersey Athletic Conference: Kean
North Atlantic Conference: Maine Maritime
North Coast Athletic Conference: Wittenberg
North Eastern Athletic Conference: Morrisville State
Northern Athletics Collegiate Conference: Aurora
Northwest Conference: Pacific Lutheran
Ohio Athletic Conference: Ohio Northern
Old Dominion Athletic Conference: Washington & Lee
Presidents’ Athletic Conference: Bethany
Skyline Conference: Mount Saint Vincent
Southern Athletic Association: Berry
Southern California Intercollegiate Athletic Conference: Claremont-Mudd-Scripps
Southern Collegiate Athletic Conference: Colorado College
St. Louis Intercollegiate Athletic Conference: Greenville
State University of New York Athletic Conference: SUNY New Paltz
University Athletic Association: Emory
Upper Midwest Conference: Minnesota-Morris
USA South Athletic Conference: Meredith
Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference: Wisconsin-Eau Claire

Pool B (2)

Thomas More
Marymount (Va)

Pool C (19)

Augsburg
Birmingham-Southern
Cal Lutheran
Carnegie Mellon
Chicago
DePauw
Hope
Ithaca
La Verne Carthage
Mary Washington
Saint Benedict
Springfield
St. Thomas
Trinity
UT-Dallas Franklin & Marshall
Washington-St. Louis
Wellesley
Wesleyan
Wisconsin-Whitewater

Upon further review…those that followed my selection process know that I took MIT as the first New England team off the board and they no longer show up in my list. Through my mock selection, MIT was acting as a block in the New England Region. Eventually, I just took them because I knew that region would get teams in. This worried me. After my mock selection I went back to the New England Rankings and determined that it’s quite possible that MIT will be dropped. I believe (for a number of reasons) that Springfield will be ranked in a position to be selected. When I did my final super secret comparison, they came out on top. Well…not really…but I think three New England teams are getting in.

Ricky is emailing me, which means he has posted his prediction.

It appears we differ on four teams. He has Bethel, Carthage, Concordia Wisconsin and MIT. I have DePauw, Mary Washington, Springfield and Wellesley. If you ask me which four three teams I think will win, I’ll take Ricky’s. If you ask me which four teams are more likely to be selected, I’ll take mine.

UPDATE

The tournament has been announced. I’ll have a separate post to discuss my thoughts. As far as my prediction, the last two teams I selected didn’t make it and both happen to be from the West Region. When I was going through my selection, I could see that La Verne was blocking UT-Dallas. With that said, La Verne I believe wins the comparison with Franklin & Marshall who have no business being in this tournament. I mean, La Verne did beat them, has better ranked wins and a better SOS! If UT-Dallas had been considered against DePauw then UT-Dallas wins that comparison as they have a better record, better ranked wins and a head-to-head win. Just weird. I can understand not selecting the two West Region teams but you can’t take those teams over them.

Overall, I got 19 of 21 correct.

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7 thoughts on “Projected NCAA Field of 64

  1. My projection is what I would do if I were a one-person committee. You are far likelier to match the eventual field. I also like Mary Washington, DePauw, Tufts and Musky quite a bit. I’m not sure why UMW was behind F&M heading into this week.

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    1. Yeah, I know you don’t own those NCAA goggles! 🙂

      I was shocked when I got to UMW and selected them. Their resume surprised me. DePauw is 2017 Whittier in my mind.

      I liked Tufts, too…but I don’t think they will be in a position to be selected. They could have been if ranked higher. They played things the right way and New England will punish them for it.

      My favorite team not picked by me was Carthage. I spent more time trying to squeeze them in but the ranked wins just killed it.

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  2. I almost matched Ricky’s. I did not try and predict ranking changes, so that accounts for some of our 4 difference. You had Depauw, Mary Washington, Springfield, and Wellesley, where I had Bethel, Carthage, Concordia, and Otterbein.
    I could NOT bring myself to pick MIT.
    My count CE: 5 GL: 2 MA: 1 MW: 4 NE: 1 NY: 1 SO: 1 WE: 4

    I am going to count airplane rides next.

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    1. I don’t think NE gets one bid. They get at least two and they always sneak one in. In this case I guessed Springfield. Otterbein will be ranked 8th in the Great Lakes. I spent probably 2 hours yesterday looking at that region and I could never knock DePauw off the 6th spot. If F&M is ranked ahead of UMW then they are sunk.

      I’m fine with Bethel, Carthage and Concordia getting bids. My predictions don’t represent what I would do if I were NCAA King for a Day.

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