Watch List

Updated: 10/20/19

In my posts, you will come across the term “Watch List”, which simply means the West Region teams that I believe are in position to garner a Pool C bid come November selection time (if they do not win the automatic Pool A bid or Pool B bid). If you need a rundown on Pool A, B and C bids then check out the FAQ page. I decided to make this a permanent page as it gives me a little more freedom to keep this updated without polluting the main page. This will be a fluid list and I’ll try to update it with wins/losses and signature wins/losses. The “(#)” are the number of sets in the match. Records are Division III only and do not include reclassifying teams, which means it excludes results against JWU (Denver) and St. Thomas (Tx).

Teams removed since last update:  None

There are a few teams that could be pulled off the list but I want to see where the West Region RAC is at with their rankings.

Teams added since last update:  None

No one on the radar at the moment.

NOTE – In-Depth write-ups are below the table.

NOTE – Wins and losses are DIII ONLY. When considering NCAA selection, the primary criteria only considers DIII matches.

Signature
School Wins Losses Wins Losses
Cal Lutheran 12 9 Augsburg(3),
Concordia(4),
La Verne(4)
Platteville(3),
St. Olaf(4),
Trinity(4),
Emory(3),
WUSTL(4),
CMS(4)(5),
ULV(4),
Chapman(5)
Chapman 18 3 Pac Lu(3),
CMS(5),
La Verne(3),
Cal Lu (5)
St. Olaf(3),
Augsburg(4),
CMS(3)
CMS 19 3 St. Olaf(4),
Concordia(3),
Emory(3),
WUSTL(4),
Cal Lu(4)(5),
La Verne(4),
Chapman(3)
Augsburg(5),
Juniata(4),
Chapman(5)
Colorado College 23 2 Oshkosh(4),
MIT(4),
BSU(4),
Whitworth(3),
S’Western(4)(4),
Trinity(3),
R-Macon(3),
DePauw(3)
Clarkson(5),
Transy(5)
Concordia 15 5 S’Western(4) CMS(3),
Cal Lu(4),
S’Western(4),
UMHB(3),
UTD(5)
La Verne 12 9 PLU(3),
Cal Lu(4)
Augsburg(3),
St. Olaf(4),
Carroll(4),
Colorado Col(3),
MIT(4),
CMS(4),
Chapman(3),
Cal Lu(4),
Whittier(5)
Pacific 15 5 Pac Lu(4) St. Thomas(4),
John Carroll(4),
Simpson(5),
Whitworth(4),
George Fox(4)
Pacific Lutheran 13 9 Trinity(5) S’Western(5),
UTD(3),
ULV(3),
Chapman(3),
Pomona(5),
Whitworth(5)(3),
Pacific(4),
Puget Sound(5)
Southwestern 14 9 Pac Lu(5),
Concordia(4)
Carthage(3),
Whitworth(3),
Aurora(4),
UTD(4),
Colorado Col(4)(4),
Concordia(4),
Trinity(3),
TLU(4)
Trinity 21 4 UMHB(4)(4),
Morris(3),
St. Ben(4),
Aurora(3),
Juniata(4),
Cal Lu(4),
S’Western(3),
Ohio North(4)
UTD(4),
Pac Lu(5),
WUSTL(5),
Colorado Col(3)
UMHB 18 6 Morris(4),
Endicott(4),
C. Newport(4),
Concordia(3)
UT-Dallas(5)
Trinity(4)(4),
St. Ben(4),
Berry(5),
Transy(3),
Ohio North(4)
UT-Dallas 18 4 ConcordWi(3),
UWSP(3),
Trinity(4),
Pac Lu(3),
S’Western(4)
DePauw(3),
Chicago(4),
Aurora(3),
UMHB(5)
Whitworth 14 4 S’Western(3),
BSU(4),
PLU(5)(3),
Pacific(4)
Carthage(3),
Transy(4),
Colorado Col(3),
George Fox(4)

In-Depth Looks

Records are through Sunday. I’m using NCAA SOS numbers as of 10/16/19. These numbers are NOT what is used for selection but they are as close as I can get. I will update the SOS on Monday each week when the NCAA updates their numbers.  Ranked wins is not considered until regional rankings are released and even then they lag a week although I do my best to anticipate who will be ranked.

Cal Lutheran (12-9 0.571, 0.655 SOS, 0-0 anticipated Ranked Wins)

Their SOS is at the high water mark and should come down pretty quickly moving forward. Still, they should stay above 0.600 for the season. Their win over La Verne was required to be considered regionally ranked this week. They still have that nice win over Augsburg but not much else on their resume. Tough schedule but they are lacking the wins.

Chapman (18-3 0.857, 0.535, 0-0)

Their SOS will hang around this number for the rest of the season it appears. It’s on the very low end of what is typically selected for an at-large bid. Bottom line, if they don’t win the SCIAC Tournament then it means another loss on the record. Their record is what makes up for their SOS. They don’t have a signature win outside of CMS but they could also end up losing twice to them. I think Chapman is sitting alright right now but just one slip-up could mean trouble. Honestly, one thing in their favor is a non-criteria reason and that is they haven’t been to the tournament in awhile.

Claremont-Mudd-Scripps (16-3 0.842, 0.593, 0-0)

Will get an at-large if they don’t win the conference. Their SOS is also an issue as it should drop a bit the rest of the way but a number of signature wins and their pedigree are too good to be kept out. The issue for CMS is that they really want to host a regional and losing to Chapman doesn’t advance that goal.

Colorado College (23-2 0.920, 0.630, 0-0) 

Missing two starters and just rolling. They were fun to watch this weekend. I don’t think they can get to the Elite 8 without Spaethling and she should be back in a week or so.

Concordia (15-5 0.750, 0.442, 0-0)

One of the teams that I don’t see a path forward towards an at-large bid. No signature wins and a really poor SOS.

La Verne (12-9 0.571, 0.601, 0-0) 

Tough week for the Leopards may have sunk any hope of an at-large bid. The SOS should drop a bit moving forward so they need to win.

Pacific (15-5 0.750, 0.455, 0-0) 

Like Concordia, a team that doesn’t have a path forward to an at-large. They are a match out of the NWC title so they can still make the tournament but that SOS and some poor losses really doomed their at-large hopes.

Pacific Lutheran (13-9 0.591, 0.537, 0-0) 

Another team that could probably be removed. They do have that Trinity win but not much else on the resume.

Southwestern (14-9 0.609, 0.622, 0-0) 

They have UMHB and Trinity this week and Carnegie Mellon next week. They have to win at least two of these and getting three may not be enough. The SOS will play come selection time but they need more wins. A team that normally could be removed except they scheduled really well this season. They still have a chance.

Trinity (21-4 0.840, 0.624, 0-0) 

Doing what they need to do. A lock for an at-large bid if they don’t win the SCAC.

UMHB (18-6 0.750, 0.590, 0-0)

Huge win over UT-Dallas for the regional rankings and for their at-large hopes. Their SOS should be fine. It’s going to be interesting to see how this week plays in the West RAC rankings later this week.

UT-Dallas (18-4 0.818, 0.589, 0-0)

The SOS is slipping. They do have a win over Trinity but that UMHB loss hurts. They should get a rematch in the ASC Tournament but, of course, a win their probably means they win the ASC title.

Whitworth (14-4 0.778, 0.560, 0-0) 

Did what they needed to do this week. They will finish first or second in the conference. If they do finish second then it will be really dicey as to whether they get a bid. Their best win is Birmingham-Southern.

Advertisements