2019 Watch List

Updated: 11/3/19

In my posts, you will come across the term “Watch List”, which simply means the West Region teams that I believe are in position to garner a Pool C bid come November selection time (if they do not win the automatic Pool A bid or Pool B bid). If you need a rundown on Pool A, B and C bids then check out the FAQ page. I decided to make this a permanent page as it gives me a little more freedom to keep this updated without polluting the main page. This will be a fluid list and I’ll try to update it with wins/losses and signature wins/losses. The “(#)” are the number of sets in the match. Records are Division III only and do not include reclassifying teams, which means it excludes results against JWU (Denver) and St. Thomas (Tx).

Teams removed since last update:  Concordia, La Verne, Pacific, Pacific Lutheran and Southwestern

I think we have a pretty solid 8 in the West as far as who can be ranked. Might as well remove the rest.

Teams added since last update:  None

No one to add but a big Watch List shout-out to George Fox, Whittier and TLU with some big wins recently.

NOTE – In-Depth write-ups are below the table.

NOTE – Wins and losses are DIII ONLY. When considering NCAA selection, the primary criteria only considers DIII matches.

Signature
School Wins Losses Wins Losses
Cal Lutheran 17 10 Augsburg(3),
Concordia(4),
La Verne(4),
Chapman(3)
Platteville(3),
St. Olaf(4),
Trinity(4),
Emory(3),
WUSTL(4),
CMS(4)(5),
ULV(4),
Chapman(5),
Whittier(3)
Chapman 22 4 Pac Lu(3),
CMS(5),
La Verne(3)(4),
Cal Lu (5)
St. Olaf(3),
Augsburg(4),
CMS(3),
Cal Lu(3)
CMS 24 3 St. Olaf(4),
Concordia(3),
Emory(3),
WUSTL(4),
Cal Lu(4)(5),
La Verne(4)(5),
Chapman(3)
Augsburg(5),
Juniata(4),
Chapman(5)
Colorado College 25 3 Oshkosh(4),
MIT(4),
BSU(4),
Whitworth(3),
S’Western(4)(4),
Trinity(3),
R-Macon(3),
DePauw(3)
Clarkson(5),
Transy(5),
Trinity(3)
Trinity 27 4 UMHB(4)(4),
Morris(3),
St. Ben(4),
Aurora(3),
Juniata(4),
Cal Lu(4),
S’Western(3)(4),
Ohio North(4),
Colorado Col(3)
UTD(4),
Pac Lu(5),
WUSTL(5),
Colorado Col(3)
UMHB 23 7 Morris(4),
Endicott(4),
C. Newport(4),
Concordia(3)
UT-Dallas(5),
S’Western(5)
Trinity(4)(4),
St. Ben(4),
Berry(5),
Transy(3),
Ohio North(4),
TLU(5)
UT-Dallas 22 4 ConcordWi(3),
UWSP(3),
Trinity(4),
Pac Lu(3),
S’Western(4)
DePauw(3),
Chicago(4),
Aurora(3),
UMHB(5)
Whitworth 18 4 S’Western(3),
BSU(4),
PLU(5)(3),
Pacific(4)(4)
Carthage(3),
Transy(4),
Colorado Col(3),
George Fox(4)

In-Depth Looks

Records are through Sunday. I’m using the official SOS numbers from the second release of the regional rankings. I don’t have access to the updates. Ranked Wins are manually determined based on the rankings last week. (Please understand I may have a mistake or two in the Ranked Wins.)

Cal Lutheran (17-10 0.630, 0.612 SOS, 2-7 anticipated Ranked Wins)

Got three more wins, which they desperately need. Have a good SOS but Ranked Wins and record are the killers.

Chapman (22-4 0.846, 0.541, 2-4)

Got a couple more wins to improve their record but I had them under consideration for my mock selection last week and they never got picked. Their Ranked Wins and SOS should kill any chance of them getting selected and if the RAC continues to rank them high then they probably kill anyone else’s chances (although it’s debatable if any other team has a better chance at an at-large).

Claremont-Mudd-Scripps (24-3 0.889, 0.572, 6-3)

On target to win the SCIAC regular season and host their tournament. Should get the Pool A bid but if they falter they’ll get an at-large.

Colorado College (25-3 0.893, 0.566, 5-3) 

The SOS is a problem but I selected them early in my mock. What helped were some interesting common opponent results. The problem with that is whether the West RAC Chair can use that data or if it’s respected in the selection committee. If not, I still see them getting in but later during the selection process.

Trinity (27-4 0.871, 0.584, 8-3) 

Pool A or Pool C in the future. They will make the NCAA Tournament. The question for them is can they get enough Texas teams and teams from the West to host a regional.

UMHB (23-7 0.767, 0.593, 3-6)

They were blocked by Chapman in my mock. SOS and record combination will play better during national selection. They don’t have a top notch win in their Ranked Wins, which is a problem. If they need an at-large then it means they also lost to UT-Dallas so it adds to their problem.

UT-Dallas (22-4 0.846, 0.543, 3-3)

Same boat as Chapman but they have MUCH better ranked wins. I think they win their Pool A bid because they host the ASC Tournament. If not, I think they may have a chance if not blocked by Chapman. Same issue as UMHB, if they lose their tournament then they add a regional ranked loss to the resume.

Whitworth (18-4 0.818, 0.565, 1-3) 

At-large bid!?! At-large bid!?! We don’t need no stink’n at-large bid! Congratulations to Whitworth for their Pool A Bid. (Now, if the West RAC wants to get creative…ignore all selection criteria and don’t rank Whitworth. Instead rank a West Region team with lots of regional losses to help the others. Then change it back in the last release. You see, teams ranked in the third rankings period stay for the purposes of ranked wins.)